http://www.dworin.com/very-rare/
How do I determine the needed sample size for a 95% confidence in the exact probability of a very rare event?
I have an event that occurs, and is very rare. Say the sample thusfar is 9 positives out of 90,000 trials. How would I determine how many trials I would need to have 95% confidence in the estimated probability (which appears currently to be 1 in 10,000, or 0.01%)? Assume this event is completely random. The only question that remains is what the true probability is.
There is no such number; this is a misunderstanding of confidence intervals.
The confidence interval really applies to the *error*, not to the *mean*. In other words, you might be able to say “With 95% confidence, the true probability lies between 0.009% and 0.011%” (a ±10% error). But you can never say “I’m 95% sure that the probability is *exactly* 0.01%.”
Very rare fight kung fu vs taekwondo (Master Ehsan Shafiq)
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VERY RARE Bank Of ISRAEL Mony COINS COLLACTION Old 1 LIRA SILVER ONE POUNDS 1978 $0.01 |
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BOTTLE CAPS BEER & SODA POP OF THAILAND 80 DESIGN VERY RARE $0.01 |
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atlanta braves….vintage t shirt..lets go braves!!!!!..size large….very rare! $0.01 |
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Very rare, unique technique of hetian jade rouge box $0.01 |
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viva la bam…t shirt…mtv….size medium..viva la bam…..very rare!!!! $0.01 |
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bob marley…london england,,,t shirt..size large..bob marley……very rare!!!! $0.01 |
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elvis presley….graceland..t shirt….size large..elvis!!!…..very rare!!!! $0.01 |
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1945 S MICRO S Mercury Dime 10c Neat Mint Mark Variety very desirable rare coin! $0.01 |
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4.4g STRIATED WIRE SILVER IN MATRIX PERU, VERY RARE FIND GOLD NUGGET COIN LOT#21 $0.01 |
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11.1g NATIVE SILVER & GOLD IN MATRIX PERU VERY RARE GOLD NUGGET COIN BAR LOT#22 $0.01 |
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AUSTRALIA 1953 PATENT OFFICE FEE – £5 On piece very rare & seldom seen $0.01 |
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AUSTRALIA 1953 PATENT OFFICE FEE – 10/- On piece very rare & seldom seen $0.01 |
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AUSTRALIA 1953 PATENT OFFICE FEE – £2 On piece very rare & seldom seen $0.01 |
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AUSTRALIA 1953 PATENT OFFICE FEE – £1 On piece very rare & seldom seen $0.01 |
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Rare – *Hand Blown* – Glass Bowl From *1970* – Very Beautiful And One Of A Kind! $0.01 |
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1 cent 1999 STREET ART SERIES MINI TRUCK MINT DANDY UNOPENED MOC VERY RARE $0.01 |
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1 cent 2000 COLLECTOR #140 JEEPSTER MINTY DANDY UNOPENED MOC VERY RARE $0.01 |
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Lot 13 Rare PROMO/HOLO/LEGENDARY Pokemon Cards! Very cool and very rare!!! LOOK! $0.01 |
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Latvia Lettland original of essay+photocopy of unissued stamp design, VERY RARE $0.01 |
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Latvia Lettland photocopy of essay of unissued stamp design, VERY RARE $0.01 |
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Latvia Lettland photocopy of essay of unissued stamp design, VERY RARE $0.01 |
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Latvia Lettland photocopy of essay of unissued stamp design, VERY RARE $0.01 |
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VERY RARE 1863 Civil War Token Toledo, OH $0.01 |
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Very Rare Maud Humphrey Bogart Holiday Suprise Numbered Heirloom Tradition $0.01 |
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KISS vinyl record bundle very rare items. $0.01 |
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Original very rare Pink Floyd animal vinyl $0.01 |
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Basket Case 2 CMV LASERVISION rare oop DVD Small Hartbox very cool and very HTF! $0.01 |
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Street Trash ” Dragon ” German DVD all region Very Rare OOP HTF MUST OWN THIS $0.01 |
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Frankenhooker dvd R2 German “Dragon” Version VERY RARE OOP HTF MUST HORROR $0.01 |
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Castlevania Symphony of the Night Tiger Handheld Very Rare HTF OOP in package!!! $0.01 |